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Top Group (601689): The low point has passed the third quarter of the company to improve the Tesla advance than expected

Top Group (601689): The low 青岛夜网 point has passed the third quarter of the company to improve the Tesla advance than expected

Event: The company issued a report for the third quarter of 2019, and the first three quarters gradually realized revenue of 37.

700 million, a year -15.

5%; net profit attributable to mother 3.

4 trillion, -45 a year.

3%; of which, in the single quarter of 2019Q3, revenue was 13.

3 ‰, at least -3.

9%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

3 trillion, -29 a year.


In the third quarter, the company’s operating data improved month-on-month.

According to the data of the China Automobile Association, domestic passenger car sales in the third quarter of 2019 increased by another 6.

6%, the industry continues to maintain a weak position, but the decline from the previous quarter has narrowed.

The company’s 2019Q3 revenue single quarter quarter quarter 3.

9% quarter-on-quarter, 16 in the second quarter.

8%, 24.

The 4% margin has improved markedly, and it can also be at the industry level; the decline in net profit attributable to mothers in the single quarter narrowed by 29 compared to the previous quarter.

3 averages.

The industry downturn forced companies to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the company’s financial level remained healthy.

The company’s consolidated gross profit margin in Q3 2019 was 26.

4%, an increase of 0 from the second quarter.

6 units; sales, management, and R & D expense ratios are 5 respectively.

2%, 3.

8%, 6.

3%, a quarter-on-quarter change of 0.

3, -0.

8, -0.

4 units.

In terms of operating cash flow, the cash / operating income ratio of goods sold in the third quarter of 2019 reached 116.

1%, the best level for the past 5.

Asset-liability ratio 32.

1%, continued to improve by the end of last quarter1.

9 units.

As the company’s operations ushered in an inflection point, various financial indicators were in a steady recovery path.

Model 3’s domestic production has formed a strong catalyst, and the company benefits from Tesla’s industrial chain.

Tesla’s Shanghai plant is ahead of schedule and has entered the trial production stage. It is also expected to reach full capacity production in a few months.

The company has a long-term competitive advantage in rubber shock absorption products, sound-proof interior parts and chassis system products in the NVH field, and formally became a Tesla supplier in August 2016, supplying small Tesla Model 3 aircraft lightweight aluminum alloy chassisStructure.

Benefiting from the release of the 150,000 Model 3 capacity at the first phase of Tesla’s Shanghai plant, the company’s product structure and revenue scale are likely to usher in a rapid recovery.

Earnings forecasts and investment advice.It is expected that EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.

55 yuan, 0.

73 yuan, 0.

85 yuan, corresponding to 19 times, 15 times, 13 times the corresponding PE, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Risk warning: the industry recovery may be less than expected; new product orders may be less than expected.