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Angel Yeast (600298): a long-term global leader: the amount of profit is still large, and gradually smoothed

Angel Yeast (600298): a long-term global leader: the amount of profit is still large, and gradually smoothed

As a leader in the yeast industry, the company has a domestic market share of 55% + and a global market share of 17%. It is a sparse global leader in the consumer industry. However, due to the vague market perception of the company’s long-term space + historical fluctuations in the company’s performance, it affectsThe market assessment of the company.

We believe that the market has reduced the company’s value.

In this report, we take a detailed look at the company’s long-term value, while providing our perspective on possible changes.

Core Views Global Consumers with Excellent Clarity: 18 years of global market share of 17%, domestic market share of more than 55%, beyond excellence, market share increased significantly.

It has excellent historical performance, stable revenue growth since listing, strong profitability and healthy operating cash flow, and is an outstanding global leader in the consumer industry.

In the long run, the “slope and snow thicken”: the space for yeast demand is still large, creating a long slope, and the profitability center has a strong driving force for long-term improvement: 1. Demand outlook: domestic growth is solid and the space is large, and the potential for foreign takeover is huge.

(1) Domestic yeast demand: The downstream baking scene drives overall annual growth6.

The 6% increase in penetration drives the stock yeast market to increase 54% -73% of space. (2) 南宁桑拿 Domestic yeast extract demand: rich application scenarios, MSG / chicken substitute still has 6 times the space. (3) Overseas yeast demand: incremental.Exploit, huge space for growth.

2. Prospect of profit margin hub: In the short term, the price hub will increase, and in the long run, overseas expansion will strengthen the structural profitability of profitability.

(1) Increase in price of existing products + upgrade of product structure brings about price centralization; (2) Increase in the structure ratio of higher profitability overseas production capacity: strong overseas profitability (6-10pct higher than domestic production line), and subsequent overseas production capacityExpansion leads to the increase of the structural proportion and spurs a substantial improvement in profitability.

Controversy: In the long 杭州桑拿 run, the company is gradually weakening and the consumption is increasing. It is estimated that the increase is worth looking forward to: the company ‘s historical revenue has maintained a stable growth rate of 15% +. The change in performance mainly results in the cost side, that is, the molasses cycle and the production cycle. In the long run, the two majorThe cycle is temporarily sharp, and the expected expansion of subsequent company performance growth: 1. Molasses cycle: From the molasses demand side, the demand for low-end liquor increases + environmental protection costs increase, and the molasses demand side increases significantly; from the supply side, the output lags in sugarThe price is 2 years, and the output may fluctuate slightly after 20 years, but the overall change in sugar production at the historical low level is flattening. Looking at the overall situation, we believe that the domestic molasses demand is insufficient and the supply side elasticity is weakening. The structural share of overseas molasses has increased., Will continue to provide molasses price smoothing power; 2, the production cycle: yeast pre-production capacity expansion concentrated expansion of capacity expansion costs are high, capital expenditures have a conductive effect on performance.

The initial release of the company’s production capacity tends to be gentle. In 19-20, it is expected that the depreciation cost of yeast will account for 6 of the revenue.

7% / 6.

89%, change -0 in about 18 years.

19/0.

00pct, the impact of capacity-side release on performance is smoothed.

In the future, the increase in the depreciation base of the merged company / the replacement between the depreciation of some production lines and the supplementary depreciation will gradually increase the impact of the company’s capacity cycle. The financial forecast and investment recommendations are optimistic. We are optimistic about the company’s long-term value and maintain the company’s 19-21 year earnings forecast.1.

14/1.

42/1.

61 yuan, maintaining 19 times 26 times price-earnings ratio, target price of 29.

64 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: Environmental protection, limited production recovery is less than expected, natural disasters, etc. cause molasses production is less than expected, exchange rate risk