Guanglianda (002410): The long-term value of the cloud industry boom exceeds expectations and has not yet been recognized
Leading in building information technology, the scale advantage is very obvious.
The company is a leader in domestic construction informatization and is the first listed company in the industry.
The company has excellent corporate governance. After 20 years of development, its products have evolved from a single budget software to hundreds of products including engineering cost, engineering construction, overseas business, industrial finance and so on.
The main domestic leaders are Luban Software, Shenji Cost, Swell, etc.
From the perspective of revenue volume, Guanglianda’s revenue in 2017 exceeded the sum of other domestic manufacturers, and its scale advantage is 北京会所体验网 obvious.
The prosperity of the cloud computing industry at home and abroad is beyond expectations, and it is clear that the industry has a long-term opportunity to lead.
According to the 2019Q1 quarterly report, Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, SAP and other cloud businesses all grew at a rate of more than 40%, continuing the rapid growth period of nearly 7 years.
The domestic cloud computing industry is about 5 years behind in North America. Due to the high base of H1 in 2018, the market reduced IaaS growth in the first half of the year. From the first quarterly report, cloud infrastructure vendors Inspur Information, Zhongke Shuguang, and Baoxin Software’s revenue growth rates reached rapidly, Exceeding market expectations.
In addition, North American SaaS leader Adobe, Autodesk has increased by 364% and 379% in the past 7 years.
Guanglianda is one of the leading companies in cloud transformation for domestic software companies, which can correspond to the early stage of the overseas cloud industry cycle.
The leader of cloud transformation, the moat and the increase in ARPU value have been fully understood.
The company is a pioneer in domestic cloud transformation. The transformation will begin in 2015 and is planned to be completed initially in 2020.
The transition effect in 2018 was better than expected, and the income after restoration increased by 27 per year.
Cloud transformation brings a win-win situation for Guanglianda and customers: for customers, the product is more portable and simpler and the price door is lowered; for Guanglianda, transformation brings deeper product functions, comprehensive upgrade of sales service system and R & D system, and piracyUsers and non-company users were transformed into Guanglianda to find users, which promoted the improvement of the company’s moat.
In this case, it is easier for cloud products to promote and introduce value-added services for new products, and then further increase the ARPU value.
After the calculation, the company’s annual revenue will increase to about 4 billion US dollars after the transition.
The construction business space is huge, and the development of the Internet of Things will be a continuous driving force.
The number of construction projects in 2016 was 790,000, with an average investment of 1 per project.
410,000 yuan if each item is 0.
1% investment, then the software market in the construction phase can reach 100 billion levels.
If the market share reaches 10%, the construction revenue of Guanglianda will reach tens of billions.
In 2018, the company integrated the construction structure, and the revenue began to accelerate in the second half of the year, and the integration effect was obvious.
The company’s products have also begun to be fully integrated and upgraded, focusing on creating “BIM + Smart Company” integrated products, and achieving interoperability between products.
Integrated products are very scarce in the spring, which is expected to further open up new space for construction business for Guanglianda.
The first coverage was given a “Buy” rating, corresponding to a target market size of 41.7 billion in 2019.
It is estimated that the annual revenue of Guanglianda Construction Cloud will reach 34 in 2021.
800 million US dollars, giving Guanglianda cost cloud business P / S = 12, corresponding to a city conversion rate of 41.8 billion US dollars, giving a discount rate of 10%, that is, 2019 cost cloud target market size of 34.5 billion US dollars.
The net profit of construction business is expected to be 1 in 2019-2021.
2.5 billion, 1.
8.7 billion, 2.
80 ppm, with a compound annual growth of 48% in 2019-2022, given PEG = 1.
2 times, that is, the corresponding PE is 57.
6 times, corresponding to a market value of 7.2 billion in 2019.
In summary, the target cities given in 2019 totaled 41.7 billion yuan.
Risk warning: Cloud transformation fails to meet expectations, cloud transformation affects performance growth, construction business integration fails to meet expectations, and the construction information industry is affected 杭州夜网 by macroeconomic changes.