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Haolaike (603898): Q2 growth rate has been improved and cooperation with home improvement is expected to open the traffic entrance

Haolaike (603898): Q2 growth rate has been improved and cooperation with home improvement is expected to open the traffic entrance

A brief review of performance in 2018 revenue / attributable net profit 21.

33 ppm / 3.

820,000 yuan, an increase of 14.

46% / 9.

84%, fully diluted EPS1.

22 yuan, lower than market expectations.

19Q1 revenue / net profit attributable to mother 3.

62 ppm / 3,842.

710,000 yuan, an increase of 5.

22% / 8.

17%.

It is planned to distribute 3 to every 10 shares for all shareholders in 18 years.

71 yuan (including tax).

Operational analysis 19Q1 warming up optimistic about Q2 revenue growth.

In October and November of last year, the company’s terminal order growth was sluggish. Although there was an increase in December, Q4 revenue growth was almost unchanged.

Maximized combined sales expense ratio significantly increased5.

23 points.

, Resulting in a decline in Q4 performance.

In March this year, the company’s orders achieved nearly double-digit growth, but since January and February orders were flat with the same period last year, Q1 revenue growth rate was only single digits.

Q1’s advance receipts have increased by more than 40% in three years, and Q2’s revenue growth rate is expected to improve upwards.

Last year, the company’s wardrobe revenue achieved a small double-digit growth, and the gross profit margin was promoted through high-end products and original boards.

77 points.

.
Revenue from new business cabinets 2.

47 ppm, although the revenue share is not high, but its gross profit margin reached 28 last year.

57% is slightly higher than the profit level of Sophia Smy’s cabinet, which basically achieves a breakeven.

Old store revenue and customer unit prices both achieved double-digit growth.

Excluding the impact of bulk and new stores, 18-year old store revenue has increased by 13%.

Among them, the passenger unit price increased by about 10%, but the passenger flow was the same as in 1杭州桑拿网7 years, and Q4 improved.

Entering this year, the company’s terminal passenger flow has begun to stabilize, and there has been an upward trend in March. It is expected that Q2 will stabilize and improve.

The Q1 company’s new plate original K plate and some high-end series products are listed, which is expected to form a support for the stability of the customer unit price.

On the channel side, the company added more than 200 stores last year, with a total of nearly 1,800 stores. A / B / C city stores accounted for 15% / 38% / 47% respectively.

Among them, the income of Grade A cities increased by 15.

92%, still the core driver of overall revenue growth.

Last year, the company realized strategic cooperation with Wanda, Suning and other shopping malls. This year, it will try to open up new store channels.

Cooperate with Qiyi Technology to expand the source of passenger flow.

On April 9, this year, the company and Qi Yi Technology (01739.

HK) signed a cooperation agreement to clearly divide the holding of shares and the establishment of subsidiaries.As a leading Internet home improvement company in China, Qiyi Technology’s 18-year revenue increased by 34%, and APP monthly activity maintained a growth of about 30%.

Through this cooperation, the company will open the traffic entrance to empower product sales.

Investment advice and profit forecast. The company cooperates with home improvement companies to find traffic and enable sales. However, the promotion of new products and new businesses will lead to a large increase in sales costs. At the same time, the competition in the custom home furnishing industry will increase and intensify.To 1.

36/1.

57 yuan (was 1).

94/2.

61 yuan, down 30.

1% / 39.

8%), predicting that the company’s EPS in 2021 will be 1.

87 yuan, CAGR16 for three years.

1%, corresponding PE is 16/14/12 times, maintaining the company’s “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: The price war suppresses the risk of profit; the risk that the cooperation with home improvement companies is less than expected; the risk of new business expansion.