Yasui Food (603345): Revenue Exceeds Expected Capacity Expansion to Promote Steady Revenue Growth in 19 Years
Benefiting from the advance of the Spring Festival and the price increase, the company’s revenue exceeded market expectations of the company’s 18-year income42.
590,000 yuan, an increase of 22.
25%; fourth quarter revenue 13.
190,000 yuan, an increase of 26.
11%, exceeding market expectations.
We believe that due to the early Spring Festival of 19, the company counted some of the Spring Festival shipments in 18Q4 and the company raised prices twice in October and December of 18th.
41 sales in 18 years.
34 in the beginning, an increase of 20.
70%, the average price increased by 1.
Net profit for 18 years 2.
700,000 yuan, an increase of 33.
50%; Q4 net profit is 0.
740,000 yuan, an increase of 16.
55%, growth profit is mainly due to the company’s Q4 accrual of asset impairment losses and increase in financial costs.
The company’s gross profit margin increased by 0 in 18 years.
24 PCTs, mainly due to company price 杭州桑拿网 increases and scale effects.
Benefiting from the scale effect, the sales expense ratio was reduced by 0.
64 PCT; financial expense ratio increased by 0.
Net operating cash flow of the company 2.
96 ppm, a reduction of 16 per year.
60%, mainly due to the company’s hoarding of raw materials in advance, resulting in inventory growth44.
Driving force for capacity release 19 years of steady growth in revenue We believe that the company’s 19 years of revenue is expected to grow steadily, mainly due to: (1) According to the company’s annual report, the company’s Sichuan factory plans to increase 2 capacity in 19 years.It is expected that the company’s production capacity will increase by about 15% in 19 years; (2) The combined Sichuan plant will be put into production, and in 19 years the company will expand the channels in the southwestern region to sink.
(3) The company will increase catering channel expansion in 19 years.
(4) According to the China Quick Frozen Food Network, the company raised the price of its products twice in October and December of 2018. We expect to increase the average price of products by 2-3% in 19 years.
Affected by African swine fever, the company’s raw material pork and chicken meat (accounting for about 20% of the total cost) has an upward price trend.
We believe that the company’s profitability in 19 years is expected to be relatively stable: (1) the company is expected to hedge by adjusting product formula, product structure upgrades and reducing promotions, etc. It is expected that the company’s gross profit margin will decrease slightly in 19 years; (2) the benefit of scale effects, the companyExpense rate is expected to show a downward trend; (3) Since April 1, 19, the mutation rate has been reduced from 16% to 13%.
Earnings forecast We estimate the company’s net profit for 19-21.
7.5 billion, with an EPS of 1.
20 yuan / share, corresponding to PE is 27/22/18 times.
At present, the average value of peach and plum bread and Xiang Piao Piao PE (TTM) in the food sector is more than 38 times. We believe that the company is expected to increase the space and give the company 32 times PE in 19 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 47 yuan per share.
Risks indicate that the release of production capacity exceeds expectations, leading to higher-than-expected sales growth; higher-than-expected growth in raw material costs; increased competition in the industry, higher-than-expected expenditures; and food safety risks.